Sunday 17 July 2016

Three sides to every story

Have you ever imagined yourself as the hero in a story where, against all odds, you take on the villains to save the world? Feels good doesn't it?

Politics provides an opportunity to take part in such a story. The villains consist of those that conspire to thwart your team's noble cause, either by their actions or their indifference.

For conservatives, the battle is between civilization and barbarism. Conservative themes that fit this narrative include terrorism, socialism and moral issues like abortion.

For progressives, the struggle is for oppressed or marginalized groups and include concerns such as inequality, racism and corporate power.

For libertarians, the conflict is coercion against liberty, particularly with respect to the role of government in the lives of individuals and communities, such as the extent of trade regulations, taxes and legislated personal morality.

Any political issue can be described in terms of these axes.[1] For example, illegal immigrants can be regarded as experiencing oppression, importing barbarism, or seeking freedom depending on the chosen framing narrative. In a particular election cycle, the party that tells the most persuasive story around the political issues of the day will win the election. It is not the facts and policies themselves that matter for winning the vote but, instead, how those facts and policies are framed.

In the upcoming US election, Donald Trump's slogan is "Make America Great Again". This fits particularly well with the civilization/barbarism narrative and taps into people's sense that things aren't so great right now. It also makes it easy for anyone to create their own vision for what America's greatness means. It's a difficult slogan for Democrats to attack. So they instead need to challenge Trump's credibility for delivering on it.

Hillary Clinton's slogan is "Stronger Together". This strikes a solidarity chord with progressives. But it doesn't speak to people's aspirations or struggles. So Clinton's challenge is to find a message that emotionally resonates with people.[2]

Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson's slogan is "Live Free". This fits the libertarian narrative. But, as with Clinton's slogan, it will miss the mark with most voters. Libertarians need to inspire independents who are not enamored by either of the major party candidates. So how would freedom lead to a more civilized, safe and just society or improve their day-to-day lives?

Terrorist threats and economic hardship feed into Trump's story that there are systemic problems that only he, the uncompromising Washington outsider, can solve. Unless his opponents create a persuasive alternative story, Trump wins in November.

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[1] See Arnold Kling's Tribal Politics in the 21st Century.

[2] See Scott Adam's Battle of the Campaign Slogans.